Environmental influences on tropical cyclone structure and intensity: A review of past and present literature

Abstract

Tropical Cyclone (TC) track forecast skill has shown a steadily increasing trend in the north Atlantic basin over the last decade in contrast to little or no improvement in intensity forecast skill. This is attributable in part to a lack of in-situ observations to measure important inner-core processes and the inability of current operational numerical models to accurately resolve the inner-core dynamics. Consequently, much is unknown about TC intensity change, and the most skillful intensity forecasting techniques still rely upon climatology and persistence. The forecasting of rapid changes in intensity has been particularly difficult. The need for improved TC intensity forecasts has never been greater due to rapidly increasing population in coastal communities. This is the motivation for the present review, which seeks to discuss our current knowledge and highlight the most fruitful areas for future work. This is accomplished through a literature review of past and present research with emphasis on current gaps in knowledge.