A logistic regression model for prediction of premonsoon convective development over Kolkata

Abstract

Certain parameters (both dynamic and thermodynamic) have been identified as significant for the occurrence of convective developments in the premonsoon period (March-May) in Kolkata (India). In the present paper, an attempt has

been made to develop a logistic regression model for prediction of the risk of occurrence of these convective developments from a knowledge of the values of significant parameters. The model was developed on the basis of a sample of 87 days covering the premonsoon period of the year 1990. When used for the purpose of validation on the basis of data of an arbitrarily chosen year, it yielded about 80% correct predictions.