Climate change modeling based public health resource planning for Narmada basin, India

Abstract

Present study is to determine the potential public health risk of climate change parameters (temperature and precipitation) based on its effect on surface drinking water quality of Narmada River Basin. This study was performed by past data collection and multiple linear regression based modeling. The inter-region and inter-district variation was observed in the study. The study found that climate change over time does have an impact on the local climate conditions for the lower regions of the basin. However, the public health risk was more prevalent for the upper region districts based on the linear regression model. Monsoon months especially July and August are at much greater risk compared to other months. These two months accounted for over 80% of the total risk months in 102 years of data. The study is concluded by providing a framework for evidence-based decision making of resource allocation on the basis of climate parameters.