Short range weather forecasting in a valley using a mesoscale model

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variations of atmospheric variables developed in Kashmir valley region have been simulated using a two-dimensional (2-D) numerical mesoscale model with appropriate modifications. The results have been compared with available observations. For realistic simulations, the variations of soil moisture changes during the integration period, contribution of turbulent heat fluxes by vegetation and the effects of cloud cover have been included. Since the simulated region has a quasi- steady weather persistent during summer season, simulations using a typical day’s data are adequate to estimate the temporal and spatial variations of atmospheric variables during the season. Thus, the model has been initialized with data of a typical day in July and 24 h simulations have been performed starting at sunrise. A comparison of model simulated results with observations at Srinagar revealed that the thermodynamic and moisture patterns are in qualitative agreement with the observations. Intensities of the simulated circulations were weak at the centre of valley during daytime. The intensities of the thermally induced slope flows were not uniform.