Bayesian analysis on stock-recruitment relationship with an application to the southern Atlantic albacore (<em>Thunnus alalunga</em>)

Abstract

SR data is fitted using three two-parameter SR models based on the least square method and then verified the posterior distribution of the &ldquo;degree of compensation&rdquo; parameter in the Shepherd SR model. Results of Akaike information criterion (AIC) showed that the Cushing SR model was the best SR model for this stock. According to the results of the Bayesian analysis, we had estimated the uncertainty on Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). For the B-H SR model, the 80% confidence interval of MSY was (19168, 25860) t, with a median of 22085 t. For the Shepherd SR model, the 80% confidence interval was (21414, 29044) t, with a median of 24799 t. In comparison with the other studies, the result of the Shepherd SR model was similar but the result of the B-H SR model was conservative.