<smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region"><smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place"> Calibration of a finite element surge prediction model for the east coast of India </smarttagtype></smarttagtype>

Abstract

<smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region"><smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place"> Real time simulation of storm surges using numerical models requires calibration and validation of the model before being used for operational forecasts. The main objective of this paper is to present the calibration studies carried out on an operational level storm surge prediction model developed at NIOT using finite element method. The primary requirement for calibration of surge prediction model is the actual data on bathymetry, past cyclones and the observed surges. The bathymetric contours along the shelf of east coast of India were digitized from the hydrographic charts and the data on cyclones which crossed the east coast of India for the past fifty years were collected from India Meteorological Department. The sensitivity studies showed that the wind stress coefficient is the key sensitive parameter for the model and so the model is calibrated for this parameter. The surge simulations using the calibrated parameter compare very well with the observed surges and illustrate the predictive capability of the model. </smarttagtype></smarttagtype>