Maximum sustainable yield estimation of shellfish fishery in Chinese marine waters by using surplus production modelling approach

Abstract

In this study, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of shellfish fishery from Chinese marine waters is estimated through two stock assessment softwares i.e. ASPIC (a surplus production model incorporating covariates) and CEDA (catch and effort data analysis). The initial catch was approximately 90%; hence, the MSY was estimated with initial proportion (IP) of 0.9 in both softwares. In ASPIC for this IP value, estimated MSY and goodness of fit (<em>R²</em>) parameters for FM were observed as 336100 t and 0.857 while for LM their estimated values remained as 316600 t and 0.856, correspondingly. In CEDA for IP value 0.9, SM and PTM estimated same MSY 213957 t, 322791 t and 266213 t for all the three error assumptions. FM for log and log normal error assumptions estimated MSY as 249382 t and 338355 t and <em>R²</em> = 0.756 and 0.786, respectively. However, gamma error assumption produced minimization failure (MF).