Impact of changing climate on wind power potential at proposed Indian offshore sites using quantile mapping

Abstract

Energy extraction from offshore wind is of high priority in India due to the vigorous efforts of the government to replace fossil fuels with renewable ones. There is, however concern about the future sustainability of such power projects against the backdrop of climate change. It is therefore necessary to assess likely changes in the wind potential of identified Indian coastal areas. While previous studies do exist, an update is needed given the availability of more advanced General Circulation Models (GCMs), reanalysis wind data, and LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging)-based wind speed measurements. This study, therefore, aims to understand future changes in the monthly wind potential at identified offshore sites off the coasts of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu based on the latest GCM suite of models from the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) as well as a high-resolution reanalysis wind data. It compares the results obtained from the CMIP6 suite of models with those from earlier CMIP5 models across three time slices representing the past (1989-2005), near future (2017-2033), and far future (2034-2050) conditions. The seasonal and spatial variations of wind power are explored. The multi-model ensemble median of CMIP6 GCMs, which demonstrates greater agreement with in-situ winds than that of CMIP5, suggests an increase in wind power density during the monsoon season and a decrease in winter at Gujarat. However, at Tamil Nadu, it shows a declining trend from 2017-2050, though winter densities are expected to exceed historical values.