An ANFIS algorithm for improved forecasting of oil consumption: a case study of USA, Russia, India and Brazil

Abstract

<smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="country-region"><smarttagtype namespaceuri="urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" name="place"> This paper proposed an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithm for oil consumption forecasting based on monthly oil consumption (January 2001 - September 2006) in USA, Russia, India and Brazil. Using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), efficiency of different ANFIS models was examined. Proposed algorithm used Autocorrelation Function (ACF) to define input variables irrespective of trial and error method (TEM). Algorithm for calculating ANFIS performance is based on its closed and open simulation abilities. </smarttagtype></smarttagtype>