Sensitivity and predictive capability studies on a finite element surge simulation model

Abstract

This paper reports the sensitivity and predictive capability studies carried out on the finite element model for storm surge simulation along the east coast of India. In this model, an explicit finite element scheme with 9-noded Lagrangian

quadratic isoparametric elements was used to discretize the study area and the governing equations. The integration of dependent variables over an element was performed using two-dimensional Simpson's rule, which leads to uncoupling of the system of equations and yields an explicit scheme for determining the flow parameters evolving with time. In the present work,

the model has been benchmarked using an International software MIKE21. Sensitivity studies are carried out to evaluate the influence of the length of the ocean shelf and its depth at the coast in predicting the storm surges along the

<span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:" times="" new="" roman";="" mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;="" mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:hi"="" lang="EN-IN">coast. The results show that the model is not sensitive to these parameters. Then the model is calibrated by simulating the storm surges induced by the 1977- Andhra cyclone, which is one of the severe cyclones in recent years along the east coast of India. The predictive capability of the calibrated model is assessed by simulating the surges for a few past cyclonic storms<span style="font-size: 14.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:="" hiddenhorzocr;color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;="" mso-bidi-language:hi"="" lang="EN-IN">, <span style="font-size:14.0pt; line-height:115%;font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"times="" roman";="" color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:="" hi"="" lang="EN-IN">which have crossed the east coast of <span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%; font-family:" times="" new="" roman";mso-fareast-font-family:hiddenhorzocr;="" color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:="" hi"="" lang="EN-IN">India<span style="font-size:14.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:" times="" new="" roman";="" mso-fareast-font-family:hiddenhorzocr;color:black;mso-ansi-language:en-in;="" mso-fareast-language:en-in;mso-bidi-language:hi"="" lang="EN-IN">.</span></span></span></span></span>