Evaluation Method for Probability of Blowout after the Failure of Offshore Well Killing

Abstract

With the development of offshore oil industry, the influx and blowout are inevitable. Well control methods have been well researched, but how to recognize the failure of well control earlier and how to evaluate the probability of blowout for taking steps to avoid are imperfect. Based on the two-phase gas-liquid flow, the characteristic of well killing curve before and after killing are analyzed. Then the method for recognizing the failure of well killing is established by the probabilistic and covariance processing method. Then the blowout due to the failure of well killing is studied and the build-up pressure template is established. According to this, three evaluation methods for blowout probability are established, the shut-off pressure, the standing and casing pressure, formation parameters and underbalanced level varying methods. Final, four hardware systems and one evaluation system are recommended for decreasing or avoiding the risk during the failure of well killing.